Fiscal sustainability in Costa Rica 1991-2013: A Montecarlo Approach

Authors

  • Julio César Espinosa Rodríguez Universidad Nacional, Costa Rica, Costa Rica
  • Marco Vinicio Valerio Berrocal Universidad Nacional, Costa Rica, Costa Rica

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.15359/eys.19-45.3

Keywords:

Simulation, Montecarlo method, Fiscal sustainability.

Abstract

The following document is an application of the fiscal sustainability model for Costa Rican economy. The model uses the methodology of natural debt limit proposed by Mendoza and Oviedo (2009) as well as a set of Montecarlo simulations to estimate the probability of surpassing this limit. The model is a simplification of the one applied by Tanner and Samake (2007) and Fernandez K. (2005). After forecasting a 3 year period a 76.09% probability to exceed the limit of debt was obtained  indicating that the economy has a high risk of unsustainable debt, in this context is was proposed, based on the IRF’s, a possible contractive fiscal politic was encountered.

Author Biographies

Julio César Espinosa Rodríguez, Universidad Nacional, Costa Rica

M. Sc. Docente e investigador de la Escuela de Economía, Universidad Nacional, Costa Rica.

Marco Vinicio Valerio Berrocal, Universidad Nacional, Costa Rica

Bachiller. Estudiante Asistente de la carrera de Economía, Universidad Nacional, Costa Rica.

References

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Published

06/30/2014

How to Cite

Fiscal sustainability in Costa Rica 1991-2013: A Montecarlo Approach. (2014). Economía Y Sociedad, 19(45), 72-95. https://doi.org/10.15359/eys.19-45.3

Issue

Section

Articles (Arbitrated section)

How to Cite

Fiscal sustainability in Costa Rica 1991-2013: A Montecarlo Approach. (2014). Economía Y Sociedad, 19(45), 72-95. https://doi.org/10.15359/eys.19-45.3

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