Desajustes no mercado de trabalho e inflação: um modelo de integração estimado para o caso espanhol durante a grande recessão
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.15359/eys.23-54.6Palavras-chave:
Curva de Beveridge, curva de Philips, desajuste laboral, inflação, mercado de trabalhoResumo
A Grande Recessão enfatizou a necessidade de diferentes políticas econômicas e reformas estruturais para impulsionar o crescimento econômico e a contratação de economias avançadas e emergentes. Partimos do conceito teórico relativamente novo: a brecha de produção modificada (MOG), baseado tanto na curva de Phillips quanto na de Beveridge, revelando a relação explicitamente positiva entre a taxa de vagas do emprego e a taxa de inflação. Empiricamente, a relação é estimada através do desenvolvimento de três modelos de dados de painel diferentes: efeitos fixos (FE), efeitos aleatórios (RE) e um sistema GMM (método generalizado dos momentos). Os resultados mostram que uma perda da eficiência no ajuste no mercado de trabalho combinada com um aumento na demanda nos mercados de bens e serviços aumentará a inflação. A relevância empírica da lacuna de produção modificada na Espanha durante a Grande Recessão é evidente, e como isso afeta a implementação do plano de estímulo econômico liderado pelo governo espanhol para impulsionar a economia neste período.
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