2022: Unpredictability as a constant
Keywords:
COVID, unpredictability, uncertainty, pandemic, geopolitics, futureAbstract
Last January 18th, 2021 the journal The Economist published a short article titled "The new normal is already here. Get used to it." The article started with an interesting phrase: "The era of predictable unpredictability is not going away". This sentence seems like a paradox and is not new per se, it is relevant since we are living in a world that, after two years of the beginning of the pandemic, it faces quick transformations.
References
Adam, B. L. (2021). Theorizing unpredictability in international politics: a new approach to Trump and the Trump Doctrine, Cambridge Review of International Affairs, 34:3, 360-382, DOI: 10.1080/09557571.2020.1842329
Armstrong, K. (2021). Rationality: What It Is, Why It Seems Scarce, Why It Matters by Steven Pinker review | Science and nature books | The Guardian. Recuperado 29 de diciembre de 2021, de https://www.theguardian.com/books/2021/oct/07/rationality-what-it-is-why-it-seems-scarce-why-it-matters-by-stevenpinker-review
Avishai, B. (2020). The Pandemic Isn’t a Black Swan but a Portent of a More Fragile Global System The Economist. Recuperado 30 de diciembre de 2021, de https://www.newyorker.com/news/daily-comment/the-pandemic-isnt-ablack-swan-but-a-portent-of-a-more-fragile-global-system
Bernstein, S; Lebow, R.; Stein, J.; et al. (2000). God gave physics the easy problems: adapting social science to an unpredictable world. European Journal of International Relations 6(1):43-76.
Bueno de Mesquita, B., Newman, D. & Rabushka, A. (1985). Forecasting Political Events: The Future of Hong Kong. New Haven, C. T.: Yale University Press.
Burrows, M. & Manning, R. (2021, diciembre 21). The top twelve risks and opportunities for 2022. Atlantic Council. https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/content-series/atlantic-council-strategy-paper-series/the-top-twelve-risks-and-opportunities-for-2022/
Choucri, N. (1974). Forecasting in international relations: problems and prospects. International Relations 1(2): 63-86.
Engelke, P. (2021, diciembre 21). Six ‘snow leopards’ to watch for in 2022. Atlantic Council. Recuperado 29 de diciembre de 2021, de https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/content-series/atlantic-council-strategy-paper-series/
six-snow-leopards-to-watch-for-in-2022/
Feldscher, K. (2021). What will it be like when COVID-19 becomes endemic?https://www.hsph.harvard.edu/news/features/what-will-it-be-like-when-covid-19-becomes-endemic/
Fomin, I., Kokarev, K., Ananyev, B., Neklyudov, N., Bondik, A., Glushkov, P., Safina, A., Stolyarova, S., Tkach, D., Vedernikova, O., Yakovenko, I., Korobkova, D., Kovaleva, D., Kuzina, E., Voronina, D., Chekov, A., Sushentsov, A., & Wohlforth, W. (2021). International studies in an unpredictable world: still avoiding the difficult problems? European Journal of International Relations, 27(1), 3-28. https://doi.org/10.1177/1354066120948124
McGillivray, G. (2020).Coronavirus is significant, but is it a true black swan event?The Conversation. Recuperado 30 de diciembre de 2021, de http://theconversation. com/coronavirus-is-significant-but-is-it-a-true-black-swan-event-136675
Metternich, N. & Gleditsch K. (2016). Forecasting in international relations. In:[Oxford Bibliographies in] International Relations. Oxford University Press.
Newson, L. & Richerson, P. (2021, April 25). What if COVID-19 had emerged in 1719? OUPblog. https://blog.oup.com/2021/04/
what-if-covid-19-had-emerged-in-1719/
Rutjens, B. T., van der Linden, S., & van der Lee, R. (2021). Science skepticism in
times of COVID 19. Group Processes & Intergroup Relations, 24(2), 276-
https://doi.org/10.1177/1368430220981415
Scartozzi, Cesare M. “A New Taxonomy for International Relations: Rethinking the International System as a Complex Adaptive System.” Journal on Policy and Complex Systems 4, n.° 1 (2018): 109-33. https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/95496/2/MPRA_paper_95496.pdf
Schneider, G.; Gleditsch, N. & Carey, S. (2011). Forecasting in international relations. Conflict Management and Peace Science 28(1): 5-14.
The Economist. (2021). The new normal is already here. Get used to it | The Economist. Recuperado 30 de diciembre de 2021, de https://www.economist.com/leaders/2021/12/18/the-new-normal-is-already-here-get-used-to-it
Welch, D., Geoghegan, J., Ligt, J. de, & French, N. (2021). Why more contagious variants are emerging now, more than a year into the COVID-19 pandemic.
The Conversation. Recuperado 29 de diciembre de 2021, de http://theconversation.com/why-more-contagious-variants-are-emerging-now-more-than-ayear-into-the-covid-19-pandemic-155302
Published
How to Cite
Issue
Section
License
Revista de Relaciones Internacionales por Universidad Nacional de Costa Rica está bajo una Licencia Creative Commons Atribución-NoComercial-SinDerivar 4.0 Internacional