Comparison of parameters of the generalized extreme value distribution associated with extreme rainfall events in Central America

Authors

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.15359/ru.34-1.7

Keywords:

extreme value distribution, rainfall, Central America, Pacific slope, Caribbean slope

Abstract

The generalized extreme value distribution (GEVD) was used to model extreme rainfall events in Central America for a period of 30 years, beginning in 1971. Data consisted of daily rainfall records of 103 meteorological stations located throughout the isthmus. Central America was divided into 3 regions: Pacific, Caribbean and an intermediate zone. A bootstrap hypothesis test was used to compare the parameters of location, scale and form of the 3 regions. The results of the study showed significant differences between the 3 regions, mainly in terms of location and scale parameters.

Author Biography

Luis R. Cid-Serrano, Universidad del Bío Bío

Sadly, Mr. Cid-Serrano passed away recently, prior to the publication of this article.

References

Albeverio, S.; Jentsch, V. & Kantz, H. (2005). Extreme Events in Nature and Society. Alemania: Springer.

Alfaro, E. (2002). Some Characteristics of the Annual Precipitation Cycle in Central America and their Relationships with its Surrounding Tropical Oceans. Tópicos Meteorológicos y Oceanográficos, 9(2), 88-103.

Alfaro, E. J., & Cortés, J. (2012). Atmospheric forcing of cool subsurface water events in Bahía Culebra, Gulf of Papagayo, Costa Rica. Revista de Biología Tropical, 60, 173–186. doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.15517/rbt.v60i2.20001

Alfaro, E. J., Chourio, X., Muñoz, Á. G., & Mason, S. J. (2018). Improved seasonal prediction skill of rainfall for the Primera season in Central America. Int. J. Climatol, 38: e255-e268. doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/joc.5366

Alfaro, E. J., Cortés, J., Alvarado, J. J., Jiménez, C., León, L., Sánchez-Noguera, C., & Ruiz, E. (2012). Clima y temperatura sub-superficial del mar en Bahía Culebra, Golfo de Papagayo, Costa Rica. Revista de Biologia Tropical, 60(2), 159–171. doi: https://doi.org/10.15517/rbt.v60i2.20000

Amador, J. A., Alfaro, E. J., Lizano, O. G., & Magaña, V. O. (2006). Atmospheric forcing of the eastern tropical Pacific: A review. Progress in Oceanography, 69(2–4), 101–142. doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.pocean.2006.03.007

Amador, J. A., Chacón, J. R., & Laporte, S. (2003). Climate and climate variability in the Arenal Basin of Costa Rica. In H. Díaz & B. Morehouse (Eds.) (pp. 317–349). Kluwer: Academic Publishers. doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-94-015-1250-3_14

Amador, J. A., Rivera, E. R., Durán-Quesada, A. M., Mora, G., Sáenz, F., Calderón, B., & Mora, N. (2016). The easternmost tropical Pacific. Part I: A climate review. Revista de Biología Tropical, 64 (1), S1-22. doi: https://doi.org/10.15517/rbt.v64i1.23407

Beirlant J., Goegebeur, Y. & Teugels, J. (2004). Statistics of Extremes Theory and Applications. John Wiley & Sons Ltd. doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/0470012382

Castillo, E., Hadi, A., Balakrishnan N., & Sarabia J. (2004). Extreme Value and Related Models with Applications in Engineering and Science. USA: Wiley-Interscience.

Chacón, R. E., & Fernandez, W. (1985). Temporal and spatial rainfall variability in the mountainous region of the Reventazón river basin, Costa Rica. Journal of Climatology, 5(2), 175–188. doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.3370050205

Coles, S. (2001). An Introduction to Statistical Modeling of Extreme Values. Gran Britain: Springer.

Efron, B., & R. Tibshirani, R. (1993). Introduction to the Bootstrap. New York, Chapman & Hall.

Enfield D., & Alfaro, E. (1999). The Dependence of Caribbean Rainfall on the Interaction of the Tropical Atlantic and Pacific Oceans. J. of Climate (12), 1093-2103. doi: https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0442(1999)012<2093:TDOCRO>2.0.CO;2

Fernández, W., Chacón, R., & Melgarejo, J. (1996). On the rainfall distribution with altitude over Costa Rica. Revista Geofísica, 44, 57–72. doi: http://hdl.handle.net/10669/668

Hair, J., Anderson, R., Tatham, R., & Black, W. (1999). Análisis multivariante. Madrid: Prentice Hall Iberia.

Hann, L., & Ferreira, A. (2006). Extreme Value Theory: An Introduction. USA: Springer.

Hastenrath, S. (1991). Climate Dynamics of the Tropics. Dordrecht: Springer Netherlands.

Ibañez, A. (2011). Análisis estadístico de valores extremos y aplicaciones. (Tesis inédita de doctorado). Universidad de Granada, Granada, España.

Imbach P., Molina, L., Locatelli, B., Roupsard, O., Mahe, G., Neilson, R., Corrales, L., Scholze, M., & Ciais, P. (2012). Modeling Potential Equilibrium States of Vegetation and Terrestrial Water Cycle of Mesoamerica under Climate Change Scenarios. J. of Hydrometeorology, 13, 665-680. doi: https://doi.org/10.1175/JHM-D-11-023.1

IPCC. (2014). Climatic Climate Change 2014. Synthesis Report Summary for Policymakers.

Izaguirre, C. (2010). Estudio de la variabilidad climática de valores extremos de oleaje. (Unpublished doctoral dissertation), University of Cantabria, Spain.

Izaguirre, C., Méndez, F., Espejo, A., Losada, I. & Reguero, B. (2013). Extreme wave climate changes in Central-South America. Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht, (119), 277-290. doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-013-0712-9

Izaguirre, C., Méndez, F., Menéndez, M., & Losada, I. (2011). Global extreme wave height variability based on satellite data. Geophysical Research Letters, 38, 1-6. doi: https://doi.org/10.1029/2011GL047302

Izaguirre, C., Méndez, F., Menéndez, M., Luceño, A., & Losada, I. (2010). Extreme wave climate variability in southern Europe using satellite data. Journal of Geophysical Research, (115), 1-13. doi: https://doi.org/10.1029/2009JC005802

Izaguirre, C., Menéndez, M., Camus, P., Méndez, F., Mínguez, R., & Losada, I. (2012). Exploring the interannual variability of extreme wave climate in the Northeast Atlantic Ocean. Ocean Modelling, 59-60, 31-40. doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ocemod.2012.09.007

Johnson N., Kotz, S., & Balakrishnan, N. (1994). Continuous Univariate Distributions. New York: Wiley-Interscience.

Kotz, S., & Nadarajah, S. (2000). Extreme Value Distributions: theory and applications. London: Imperial College Press.

Le, N., & Zidek, J. (2006). Statistical Analysis of Environmental Space-Time Processes. USA: Springer.

Maldonado, T., Alfaro, E. J., & Hidalgo, H. G. (2018). A review of the main drivers and variability of Central America’s Climate and seasonal forecast systems. Revista de Biología Tropical, 66(Suppl.1), S153-S175. doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.15517/RBT.V66I1.33294

Maldonado, T., Alfaro, E., Fallas, B., & Alvarado, L. (2013). Seasonal prediction of extreme precipitation events and frequency of rainy days over Costa Rica, Central America, using Canonical Correlation Analysis. Advances in Geosciences, 33, 41-52. doi: https://doi.org/10.5194/adgeo-33-41-2013

Maldonado, T., Rutgersson, A., Alfaro, E., Amador, J., & Claremar, B. (2016). Interannual variability of the midsummer drought in Central America and the connection with sea surface temperatures. Advances in Geosciences, 42, 35-50, doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/adgeo-42-35-2016

Mapes, B. E., Warner, T. T., Xu, M., Negri, A. J., Mapes, B. E., & Xu, M. (2003). Diurnal Patterns of Rainfall in Northwestern South America. Part II: Model Simulations. Monthly Weather Review, 131(5), 799–812. doi: https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0493(2003)131<0830:DPORIN>2.0.CO;2

Peña, M., & Douglas, M. W. (2002). Characteristics of Wet and Dry Spells over the Pacific Side of Central America during the Rainy Season. Monthly Weather Review, 130(12), 3054–3073. doi: https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0493(2002)130<3054:COWADS>2.0.CO;2

Pérez-Briceño, P.M., Alfaro, E., Hidalgo, H. & Jiménez, F. (2016). Distribución espacial de impactos de eventos hidrometeorológicos en América Central. Revista de Climatología, 16, 63-75.

Retana, J. (2012). Eventos hidrometeorológicos extremos lluviosos en Costa Rica desde la perspectiva de la adaptación al cambio en el clima. Tópicos meteorológicos y oceanográficos, 1, 52 -64. doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.15359/rca.44-2.1

Taylor, M. & Alfaro, E. (2005). Climate of Central America and the Caribbean, Climate of. In Encyclopedia of World Climatology (Oliver JE, Ed.), Springer, Netherlands, pp. 183-189. doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/1-4020-3266-8_37

Velásquez, R. (2000). Mecanismos físicos de variabilidad climática y eventos extremos en Venezuela. Universidad de Costa Rica.

Wilks, D. (2011). Statistical Methods in the Atmospheric Sciences (Vol. 100, 3ra ed.) California: Academic Press.

Zárate-Hernández, E. (2013). Climatología de masas invernales de aire frío que alcanzan Centroamérica y el Caribe y su relación con algunos índices árticos. Top. Meteor. Oceanogr., 12(1), 35 – 55.

Zárate-Hernández, E. (2014). Influencia de las masas invernales de aire frío sobre el chorro de bajo nivel del Caribe y sus ramas. Top. Meteor. Oceanogr., 13(2), 19–40.

Published

2020-01-31

Issue

Section

Original scientific papers (evaluated by academic peers)

Comentarios (ver términos de uso)

Most read articles by the same author(s)

<< < 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 > >>